Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has raised concerns about the increasing rates of autism diagnoses, calling it a “tragedy” that destroys families. However, his claims about the causes of autism contradict the consensus among scientists.
According to Stephanie Pappas, in an article on Live Science, RFK, Jr. pointed to environmental factors as the primary cause of the rise in autism, but researchers disagree. They argue that genetics play a major role in autism, with studies showing that between 60 and 90 percent of autism cases are heritable. Additionally, doctors can identify specific genetic mutations in up to 40 percent of cases. While environmental factors like pollution may contribute, changes in diagnostic criteria and better screening are the primary reasons for the increase in autism diagnoses.
Annette Estes, director of the University of Washington Autism Center, explains the complexity of autism’s causes. She says, “The problem from a science communication standpoint is that the causes are complex.” Unlike other conditions with a clear genetic cause, autism’s roots are not as simple, and a variety of factors, including genetics and environment, contribute.
The rise in autism diagnoses can be traced back to changes in how it’s diagnosed. In 2000, one in 150 children was diagnosed with autism. By 2014, that number had risen to one in 31. RFK, Jr. mentioned statistics from the 1970s and 1980s, which showed much lower rates of autism, but those numbers were based on outdated diagnostic criteria. Autism was once considered a form of schizophrenia, and only later did the diagnosis evolve into what we recognize today as autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
Changes in diagnostic practices have had a major impact. A 2015 study found that 60 percent of the rise in autism diagnoses in Denmark between 1980 and 1991 was due to these shifts in criteria. Another study in the U.S. found that the number of children diagnosed with autism tripled between 2000 and 2010. During the same period, fewer children were labeled with intellectual disabilities, suggesting that some children had simply been reclassified as autistic.
In the U.S., autism rates also vary significantly by state. For example, California reports the highest autism prevalence at 53.1 per 1,000 children, while Texas reports just 9.7 per 1,000. The variation is partly due to California’s aggressive early screening programs, which identify more children with autism.
Factors like older parental age and premature birth may also play a role in the rising autism rates. As people are waiting longer to have children, the likelihood of having a child with autism increases. Additionally, improved neonatal care means more premature babies survive, and these children are at higher risk for autism.
Environmental factors such as infections during pregnancy and exposure to air pollution have been linked to an increased risk of autism. Research is ongoing to better understand how these factors might affect brain development.
RFK, Jr. has promised to investigate the causes of autism, but his approach largely ignores the extensive research already available. For instance, the idea that ultrasounds during pregnancy could cause autism was tested in a large study that found no such link. Similarly, the widely debunked theory linking vaccines, specifically the MMR vaccine, to autism continues to be a point of contention, despite years of scientific evidence refuting it.
Annette Estes emphasizes that the causes of autism are far more nuanced than a single, frightening explanation. “This idea that there needs to be one single cause, and it needs to be really scary—it’s just really taking us backward,” she says. The complexity of autism requires a multifaceted approach to diagnosis, treatment, and understanding.
Article updated 2 months ago. Content is written and modified by multiple authors.
