Earth is on track to pass the 1.5°C global warming mark in just over three years if carbon emissions continue at the current pace. The Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium reports that the carbon budget to keep warming below 1.5°C is roughly 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ starting from early 2025, likely to be used up in a little more than three years.
The IGCC study shows that 2024 recorded the highest global surface temperatures on record, with an average increase of 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels. Human activities are responsible for about 1.36°C of this rise. While a single year above 1.5°C does not officially break the Paris Agreement goal, the ongoing trend is clear.
“Every small increase in warming matters, leading to more frequent, more intense weather extremes,” said Professor Joeri Rogelj of the Centre for Climate Futures. Lead author Professor Piers Forster added, “Continued record-high emissions of greenhouse gases mean more of us are experiencing unsafe levels of climate impacts.”
Over the past decade, human-driven emissions have averaged 53 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year, mainly from burning fossil fuels and deforestation. Aviation emissions, which fell during COVID-19 lockdowns, have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.
The report warns that global temperatures could rise beyond 1.6°C or 1.7°C within the next decade if emissions do not decrease. “Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached,” Rogelj said.
Article updated 4 months ago. Content is written and modified by multiple authors.
