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Fitch Ratings has predicted that the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria will be a three-horse race for the first time since its return to democracy, with Labour Party candidate Peter Obi especially popular among the nation’s urban and affluent voters.
The firm expects Obi to receive strong backing from Nigeria’s South East and South-South regions, traditionally strongholds of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Meanwhile, demographic dominance due to the majority of Muslims in the North is likely to benefit ruling APC candidate Bola Tinubu.
However, Fitch cautioned that domestic insecurity will likely rise ahead of and following elections, particularly if there is a closely contested race.
Moreover, a victory by Tinubu…breaking the unwritten tradition of alternating between Muslim and Christian presidents–would lead to questioning of electoral fairness amongst supporters of other candidates.
APC is nonetheless expected to remain in power as split-ticket voting remains rare in Nigeria.
Should there be no clear winner on August 2023 when elections are held, Fitch anticipates that this could result in a run-off between Tinubu and PDP frontrunner Atiku Abubakar; raising further tensions between partisan voters which would have negative implications for economic activity.
